The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle

Tomer Tunguz：AI 最重要的市场在中段而非前沿模型

Tunguz argues that enterprise AI spend concentrates in the 'good enough, affordable' middle tier, not the frontier. Anthropic held Opus at $5/$25 across five releases while OpenAI slashed Luna 80% then 50%; open models run most token volume at an 86% discount to closed models. The priciest model, Fable 5.1, captured only 3.7% of gateway spend in its first 12 days, while mid-tier models claim 40% of spend and 30% of tokens. As intelligence per dollar explodes but enterprise requirements barely move, tokens may shift to commodity—and that will decide the market's economics.

Why it matters: Tunguz uses gateway spending data to make a counterintuitive case: the most capable model, Fable 5.1, captured only 3.7% of spend in 12 days — the mid-tier is where enterprises actually put their money. Opus held price across five releases, open models run majority volume at 8...