Big Tech can build great agents—so why won't they sell them?

GitHub Copilot passed 20M users; M365 Copilot's paid penetration is ~3.3%, with only 20–30% of purchased seats active weekly. The split isn't about tech: GitHub's agent drives more commits and CI minutes, so usage revenue rises with output. An M365 agent that automates reports and invoice checks would let enterprises cut E5 seats at $57/user/month—Microsoft's price sheet only offers per-seat add-ons, never outcome-based pricing. Google shut down standalone browser agent Project Mariner and folded its pieces into Search and Chrome to protect ad exposure. Meta put revenue-generating agents on ad-free WhatsApp; personal agents remain free tests. Amazon's incentives align best, but Alexa+ was delayed two years and saw low voluntary use after a forced rollout. Adobe's subscription pivot slashed net profit 65% and took 18 months to lock in recurring revenue—today's giants haven't yet chosen to take that hit. The litmus test: the better this agent works, does the company make more money, or less?

Why it matters: Uses the GitHub Copilot vs M365 Copilot contrast to dissect the business model tension between usage-based revenue and per-seat pricing for agent products. Not a technical analysis but a business-model diagnosis with direct relevance for AI product builders. Score capped at 82...