Why AI hasn't replaced software engineers, and won't

Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor examined three high-profile 'AI layoff' stories—Block, Snap, Intuit—and found all were AI-washing to mask financial pressure or activist investor demands. A Block data scientist saw 'very limited gains in productivity' from AI; Snap cut AR roles, not programming jobs; Intuit's CEO flatly denied AI was the reason. Surveys back this up: 59% of US hiring managers admit they blame AI for layoffs because it sounds better than budget cuts, and 9 out of 10 companies claiming AI-driven cuts haven't even started building a replacement app. The authors frame knowledge work as a 'decide-execute-deliver sandwich'—AI compresses the execute layer, but decide and deliver resist automation in ways that capability gains alone won't fix.

Why it matters: Arvind Narayanan and Sayash Kapoor dismantle the 'AI layoff' narrative with internal data from Block and Snap—concrete, counterintuitive, and well-sourced. Hits all three HKR axes, but as commentary rather than a product release or new data drop, it lands in the 78-84 band. No...