OpenAI expects to burn $280bn by 2030

FT obtained internal OpenAI documents shared with investors, projecting cumulative cash burn of $280bn by 2030. The heaviest spending lands in 2027–2030, roughly $220bn over four years, mostly for training and running next-generation models. The same documents forecast positive cash flow only in 2029, with losses until then. The figure is far larger than previous outside estimates—I'd discount internal fundraising projections, but the direction confirms OpenAI is betting on an extremely long, capital-heavy path.

Why it matters: FT obtained internal OpenAI fundraising docs projecting $280bn cumulative cash burn by 2030, with positive cash flow only in 2029 — far exceeding prior estimates. All three HKR axes hit: the number itself is a hook, the internal sourcing provides hard data, and it directly lan...