A scenario-based forecast of superhuman AI by 2027, written as a concrete narrative

AI 2027 (2025)

Five authors, including former OpenAI researcher Daniel Kokotajlo and blogger Scott Alexander, published a scenario forecasting superhuman AI by 2027. They predict its impact over the next decade will exceed the Industrial Revolution, and they offer two branching endings: a slowdown and a race. The narrative starts in mid-2025 with AI agents handling everyday tasks but still stumbling. The work draws on trend extrapolation, roughly 25 tabletop exercises, and feedback from over 100 experts. The authors invite debate and alternative scenarios.

Why it matters: A 2027 AGI scenario led by an ex-OpenAI researcher, with data-backed forecasts and two endings (slowdown vs. race). Downside: originally published April 2025, so it's 17 months old — not breaking news. The long-form narrative format also keeps it from the 85+ band, but the aut...