Self-improving AI: a flattened 2D field and a map of every player

Self-improving AI drew heavy funding in 2026, but the systems do very different things. Karpathy's autoresearch edits a single train.py file driven by a 5-minute val_bpb metric; Weco's AIDE² evolves the agent harness and beat a 2-year human-tuned baseline after 8 days unattended; RSI modifies training scripts and GPU kernels across ~200 lines of code. OpenAI showed Sol post-training Luna autonomously; Anthropic reports 80% of merged code is now written by Claude. The real bottleneck is the verification signal—formal verifiers are strongest, self-evaluation is weakest and easily contaminated. Plotting what gets changed against how it's verified reveals a dense cluster in code optimization and a near-empty zone in open-ended research.

Why it matters: A well-framed industry analysis that breaks self-improving AI into three distinct engineering approaches with high information density. Held back because it's a commentary/survey rather than a primary release, and the full matrix is only previewed, not delivered.