The AI boom's teaser period: $2.3T in compute contracts come due in 2027–2028

The Teaser Period: Why the AI Boom Is Hitting a Reset Wall

The piece maps the AI compute build-out onto the 2006 subprime mortgage reset wall. Frontier labs like OpenAI have signed ~$2.3 trillion in take-or-pay contracts that don't start billing until the data center is delivered—typically 24–36 months later. That gap is the 'teaser period': backlog soars, costs stay off the books, and everyone bets revenue will catch up before the invoices hit. The post argues that 2027–2028 will see a scheduled wave of non-negotiable compute payments, regardless of utilization. It cites Oracle's 363% RPO growth in one fiscal year as a data point. The article does not disclose a lab-by-lab commencement schedule.

Why it matters: A structural risk analysis of AI compute commitments using a subprime ARM analogy, backed by a concrete $2.3T figure and a 2027-2028 payment cliff timeline. Hits all three HKR axes, but it's commentary from a personal Substack rather than breaking news, capping it at 78.