How Two State Machines Blocked NVIDIA: Written Rules vs. Silent Valves
The US blocked NVIDIA through four rounds of public rule updates; China blocked it through silent, document-free bans. Two generations of RTX 5090D died in different countries. Of 400,000 approved H200 exports, only 20,000 were cleared. China's logic: first ask Huawei if it can take over, then close the door. Huawei stacks 384 chips to beat GB200 NVL72 but uses 4x the power, sustained by cheap electricity. The two machines are converging: the US slides toward discretion, China hardens discretion into rules.
Why it matters: A sharp breakdown of how the US and China each block NVIDIA: the US through public rulebook iterations, China through a meeting-customs-approval combo with no paper trail. The 20k vs 400k H200 number is solid, and Jensen's CSIS quote lands. Not scored higher because it's analy...