NVIDIA guarantees up to $105B for OpenAI's data center lease—using a year's cash flow as collateral

NVIDIA signed residual value guarantees for OpenAI's Ohio data center lease, capping its exposure at $105 billion—roughly its entire FY2026 operating cash flow. OpenAI lacks a credit rating, so the guarantee lets SB Energy borrow to build the campus. In return, the site must exclusively use NVIDIA's full-stack hardware, and NVIDIA also invested $1.5 billion in SB Energy. The deal makes NVIDIA supplier, landlord shareholder, and tenant guarantor all at once, with chip payments ultimately flowing back to it. Payouts trigger only if OpenAI defaults, and only cover the shortfall after the facility is re-leased or sold. The article argues this is closer to vendor credit enhancement than a subprime rerun: no margin calls, and the debt sits mostly in private credit. If the AI cycle turns, the most exposed are GPU-collateralized neocloud lenders, OpenAI's cash burn, and SoftBank's bridge loan—not NVIDIA's balance sheet.

Why it matters: NVIDIA guarantees OpenAI's lease with a full year of operating cash flow — $105B cap, clawback terms, and a four-role position are all new disclosures. HKR all hit. Not scoring higher because execution is staged from 2028, so near-term impact is limited.