What if GPU prices double: can Jevons' paradox survive AI pricing tiers

杰文斯悖论还能持续吗：AI 定价分层如何支撑算力需求增长

Tomasz Tunguz flags that all three hyperscalers called out AI capacity constraints on Q2 2026 calls, while HBM3e memory rose 20%, HBM4 is forecast to double, and B200 spot rentals stayed flat. Model makers are segmenting into premium, mid-market, and value tiers: Anthropic Fable 5 hit $50 per million output tokens, while OpenAI slashed GPT-5.6 Luna pricing by 80%. His take: as long as mid-market and value tiers absorb workloads priced out of premium, total GPU-hours keep growing and Jevons' paradox holds.

Why it matters: Tunguz weaves hyperscaler Q2 calls, memory price hikes, and model tiering into a coherent compute-cost thesis with concrete numbers and primary quotes. The deduction is that it's an opinion piece, not hard news, and the body excerpt is truncated — the full argument isn't visib...