OpenAI's ad revenue may miss its own forecast by 90%

OpenAI's Ad Business Is on Pace to Miss Its Own Forecast by 90%, Analyst Says

OpenAI started its ad trial in February and projected $2.5B in ad revenue this year and $100B by 2030. Emarketer estimates the entire US standalone chatbot ad market—ChatGPT, Copilot, Google AI Mode, Alexa for Shopping—will generate under $1B this year and just $5.41B by 2030. OpenAI's forecast assumes it captures search budgets en masse, dominates a fully mature chatbot ad market, and outperforms every ad format in history, all at once. None of those conditions hold today.

Why it matters: OpenAI's ad revenue forecast gets a reality check from third-party data, and the gap is big enough to matter. Emarketer caps the entire US chatbot ad market at $5.41B by 2030; OpenAI's own target is $100B. Concrete numbers, clear contrast, and it hits a live nerve about AI com...