Import AI (Jack Clark)May 26, 2026, 20:32 UTC+8

Import AI 458: Reckoning with the Future; and a Singularity Story

Import AI 458: Reckoning with the future; and a singularity story

Jack Clark’s Import AI 458 excerpts his 2026 Cosmos HAI Lab Lecture, cites the Epoch Capabilities Index across 40-plus benchmarks, and argues that an AI system able to develop its own successor may arrive within two years or sooner.

Why it matters: HKR-H/K/R all pass: Jack Clark pairs ECI’s 40+ benchmarks with a two-year successor-system claim, giving this AGI-timeline essay both concrete detail and debate fuel.

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Clark’s sharpest move is not the singularity language; it is compressing the window to two years. The evidence is not one cherry-picked score: he points to Epoch’s Capabilities Index across 40+ benchmarks, then stacks the 2023 bar exam, 2024 IMO silver, 2025 IMO gold, 2025 AI-coauthored math proofs, and Claude Mythos finding software flaws. That makes the trend case stronger than the usual benchmark theater.

I still don’t buy the leap cleanly. Software engineering, automated research, and building a successor training system are separate layers. The missing bridge is experimental design, data governance, compute control, and safety gating. Clark’s Anthropic seat matters here: a two-year clock naturally supports heavier regulation, bigger safety budgets, and tighter model access. The forecast can be aggressive; the mechanism cannot be hand-waved.

Source: Import AI (Jack Clark) · jack-clark.net
Published: May 26, 2026, 20:32 UTC+8 · May 26, 2026