Import AI 455: Automating AI Research

Jack Clark argues that no-human-involved AI R&D has a 60%+ chance of arriving by the end of 2028, citing SWE-Bench gains from Claude 2 at about 2% to Claude Mythos Preview at 93.9%, plus METR task horizons rising from 30 seconds in 2022 to 12 hours in 2026.

Why it matters: HKR-H/K/R all pass: Jack Clark anchors a >60% end-2028 automated-AI-R&D claim in SWE-Bench and METR numbers. This fits the 85–94 band for a notable figure’s AI-timeline essay, below model-release magnitude.